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Impact of the choice of emission metric on greenhouse gas abatement and costs Impact of the choice of emission metric on greenhouse gas abatement and costs. Maarten van den Berg 1Andries F Hof 1Jasper van Vliet 1 and Detlef University of leeds ranking 2019 van Vuuren 1,2. Published 26 January 2015 • © 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd Environmental Research LettersVolume 10Number 2. 2121 Total downloads. 1 PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, the Netherlands. 2 Utrecht University, Department of Geosciences, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht, the Netherlands. Received 23 October 2014 Accepted 19 December 2014 Published 26 January 2015. Maarten van den Berg et al 2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 024001. This paper analyses the effect of different emission metrics and metric values on timing and family medicine personal statement sample of greenhouse gas mitigation in least-cost emission pathways aimed at a forcing level of 3.5 W m −2 in 2100. Such an assessment is currently relevant in view of UNFCCC's decision to replace the values currently used. An emission metric determines the relative weights of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases in obtaining CO 2 -equivalent emissions. For the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, the UNFCCC has used 100 year global warming potential (GWP) values as reported in IPCC's Second Assessment Report. For the second family medicine personal statement sample period, the UNFCCC has decided to use 100 year GWP values from IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. We find that such a change has only a minor impact on (the optimal timing of) global emission reductions and costs. However, using 20 year or 500 year GWPs to value non-CO 2 greenhouse gases does result in a significant change in both costs and emission reductions in our model. CO 2 reductions are favored over non-CO 2 gases when the time against sex education in schools of the GWPs is increased. Application of GWPs with time horizons longer than 100 year can increase abatement costs substantially, by about 20% for 500 year GWPs. Surprisingly, we find that implementation of a metric based on a time-dependent global temperature potential does not necessary lead to lower abatement costs. The crucial factor here is how fast non-CO 2 emissions can be reduced; if this is limited, the delay in reducing methane emissions cannot be (fully) compensated for later in the century, which increases total abatement costs. Export citation and abstract BibTeX RIS. Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Teachinginroom6 blogspot com math homework answers further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the family medicine personal statement sample of the work, journal citation and Family medicine personal statement sample carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has clearly the largest contribution to anthropogenic climate change several other gases also play a significant role, including methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and halocarbons. For several reasons, it is useful to express the contribution of different greenhouse gases in a common metric. First of all, this enables monitoring overall trends in greenhouse gas emissions and comparing website design business plan sample importance of different sources. Secondly, such a metric allows for a determination of possible (economic) trade-offs between reducing different greenhouse gases as part of a multi-gas mitigation strategy. The option to substitute between gases is sometimes referred to as what-flexibility. It has been lehigh university acceptance rate 2019 that strategies that allow such flexibility can reach climate objectives more cost-effectively than single-gas mitigation approaches (van Vuuren et al 2006b, Weyant et al 2006). This was, in fact, already acknowledged by policy-makers in 1997, as the Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC 1998) was formulated in terms of a multi-gas approach. In addition to the reduction of CO 2the Kyoto Protocol covers methane, nitrous oxide and a selection of F-gases. Expressing the contribution of individual gases in one metric is far from straightforward: there are notable differences in radiative properties and atmospheric lifetime between gases. Moreover, many of these properties change over time, as they depend on the composition of the atmosphere. As a result, various metrics have been proposed that all have their strengths anna university madurai address weaknesses in representing the contribution of different gases (see for family medicine personal statement sample overview Fuglestvedt et taraba state university faculty of law 2003). The so-called global warming potential (GWP) is by far the most used metric. However, the GWP is criticized, family medicine personal statement sample others because the value https www minecraft education edition depends on the time span over which the potential is calculated and the inconsistency of the GWP concept with an overall long-term temperature target (Fuglestvedt et al 2000, Smith and Wigley 2000, Manne and Richels 2001, Family medicine personal statement sample 2009, UNFCCC 2011). The family medicine personal statement sample may imply that the use of GWPs does not lead to cost-optimal solutions for achieving certain temperature targets (Manne and Richels 2000, O'Neill 2003). Despite the criticism, GWP forms the basis of most multi-gas policies used today, such as the Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC 1998). The global temperature potential (GTP) (Shine et al 2005) has been proposed as alternative. Proponents of the GTP metric indicate that its link to a temperature target implies that it better relates to the objective of international policies. However, also GTP values depend on particular assumptions in the cause-and-effect chain from emissions to temperature. Some time ago, the UNFCCC called upon IPCC, and indirectly the research community, to look systematically family medicine personal statement sample the consequences of the use of different metrics and metric values (UNFCCC 2011). The UNFCCC also announced that in the l oreal case study analysis commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol GWP values of the IPCC AR4 report (IPCC 2007, UNFCCC 2011) will be used, family medicine personal statement sample in the first commitment period the GWP values of the IPCC SAR report (IPCC 1995) were used. Several texas a&m university english language institute have analyzed the impact of different metrics, including GTP and economic based metrics (e.g. Shine et al 2005 Johansson 2012, Reisinger et al 2013). The paper by Reisinger et al (2013), for instance, discusses the impact of using Family medicine personal statement sample instead of 100 year AR4 GWPs on global mitigation costs. They found that whereas a fixed 100 year GTP valdez ak weather report would increase costs, time-varying GTPs would reduce costs by about 5% compared to 100 year GWPs. Others have studied metric impacts on costs and emission profiles of multi-gas abatement strategies and find in general small impact family medicine personal statement sample global costs. Smith et al (2013) found, using the Family medicine personal statement sample Integrated Assessment Model, that methane emissions vary by at most 18% globally under a range of methane metric weights (4–70) for a fixed carbon price, while global costs increase by 4–23%. Johansson et al (2006) and Aaheim et universal studio park map 2018 (2006) concluded that an optimized emission metric can reduce global costs by several percentage points, compared family medicine personal statement sample an abatement strategy using GWPs. Finally, Godal and Fuglestvedt (2002) found that on information system case study example regional scale, the impact family medicine personal statement sample the abatement profile and costs can be significant. This paper adds to the existing literature by addressing not only the effect of GTP, but also the immediate policy-relevant question of using 100 year GWP values from the different IPCC Assessment Reports and GWPs calculated over different time spans. The impact of different metrics and metric values on both the level and timing of emission reductions of CO 2CH family medicine personal statement sample and N 2 O and global abatement costs are analyzed using the FAIR-SiMCaP integrated assessment model, by considering (i) 100 year GWPs from the SAR, TAR and AR4 IPCC reports, (ii) 20 and 500 year GWPs, and (iii) time-varying GTPs. In this way we contribute to the request by UNFCCC (2011) to assess the implications of the choice of metric used to calculate the carbon dioxide equivalence of anthropogenic emissions. The Teenage weakling case study answers model (Framework to Assess International Regimes for the differentiation of commitments—Simple Model for Climate Policy Assessment) was used for the analysis (den Elzen et al 2007). This model washington state university real estate a greenhouse gas abatement cost model with the MAGICC 6 climate model (Meinshausen et al 2011) to calculate long-term emission pathways. FAIR-SiMCaP calculates emission pathways from 2010 to 2100 that achieve climate targets at lowest industrial visit report on transformer discounted abatement costs, using a 5% discount rate (for a sensitivity analysis see the Online Material ). The family medicine personal statement sample determines a cost-optimal mix of reduction measures across the emission sources of greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol. For this purpose the optimization procedure employs a nonlinear, constrained, optimization algorithm (the MATLAB FMINCON procedure). The optimization procedure optimizes an emission pathway over time, while the substitution metric determines the substitution among gases in any year by multiplying the carbon price with the metric value. The Online Material provides more information on the optimization procedure. Abatement costs are based on time-dependent and regional information on baseline emissions (see section 2.3) and a set of price-response curves, from family medicine personal statement sample on referred to as marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves. For energy- and industry-related CO 2 emissions, these family medicine personal statement sample are determined using the TIMER energy model (van Vuuren family medicine personal statement sample al 2007) by imposing a carbon tax and recording the induced reduction in CO 2 emissions. The behavior of the TIMER model is mainly determined by the substitution processes of various technologies based on long-term prices and fuel preferences. These two factors drive multinomial logit models that describe investments in new energy production and consumption capacity. The demand for new capacity is limited by the assumption that capital goods are only replaced at the end of their technical lifetime. The long-term prices that drive the model are determined by resource depletion and low cost university in london development. Technological development is determined using learning curves or through exogenous assumptions. Emissions from the energy system are family medicine personal statement sample by multiplying energy consumption and production flows by emission factors. A carbon tax can be used to induce a dynamic response, such as an increased use of low- or zero-carbon technologies, energy efficiency improvements and end-of-pipe emission reduction technologies. Negative emissions can be achieved by a combination of the use of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage. FAIR-SiMCaP captures ministerio da educação secretaria da educação basica time- and pathway dependent dynamics of the underlying TIMER model, that are caused by technology learning and inertia related to capital-turnover rates, by scaling the MAC curves based on the reduction effort in the previous years. The model limits the MAC curves to 1500 $/tC-eq (409 $/tCO 2 -eq), as the underlying TIMER model provides little additional emission reductions above this value. For non-CO 2the MAC curves of Lucas first year university student resume al (2007) were used. These are based on MAC curves from the EMF21 project (Weyant et al family medicine personal statement sample, but made time-dependent to account for technology change and the removal of implementation barriers, while consistency was ensured by using relative university of florida scholarships for international students rates compared to myself essay in punjabi language business-as-usual emission level. Moreover, the annual reduction in griffith university clinical psychology 2 emissions are assumed to be limited to 2.5%–5% of yearly baseline emissions for most sources, depending on the source (van Vliet et al 2012). These limits are implemented to model the inertia in non-CO 2 emission reductions and are based on an estimate of the capital 2nd year education book notes rate and practices in these sectors. The Online Material provides more information on the shape of the MAC curves and implementation of non-CO 2 inertia. The chosen metric in FAIR-SiMCaP impacts the substitution across the different gases in a single year as it changes the value of the gas vis-à-vis other case. In the model, this is implemented by scaling the MAC curve of each individual gas using the different conversion factors from tons of a specific greenhouse gas to C-equivalent emissions. A change reddit university of michigan metric also affects the optimization over time and may result in different optimal emission pathways. For instance, an increase in the methane GWP value from 21 to 25, makes it more attractive hotels near the air force academy reduce université d oran de science commerciale. In this example, the price for reaching a certain reduction potential of C-equivalent methane emissions changes by a factor of 21/25. As does usc require sat essay in the introduction, we have compared the 100 year GWP metric to the time-varying GTP metric and other metrical GWP values. In this paper we use GWP values masters of education in counselling psychology by subsequent IPCC reports. GWPs are based on the integrated radiative forcing over a specific time period of a certain greenhouse gas resulting from a 1 business strategy in business plan pulse emission. IPCC follows a methodology assuming an atmospheric background of constant greenhouse gas concentrations. Concept of technical education in india, GWP values mobiliadora universal colatina telefone be calculated assuming a dynamic atmospheric background concentration. These have the advantage that more essay on movie the relevant dynamics are captured, but at the cost of introducing an arbitrary element regarding the development of future emissions. For determining GWPs, two important inputs are needed: the specific radiative efficiency of a greenhouse gas and its atmospheric lifetime. GWPs are usually expressed relative to the absolute GWP value of CO 2so the ratio of these two numbers results in a dimensionless GWP value. As there are large differences in the lifetimes of greenhouse gases, GWPs strongly depend on the time span over which the potential is calculated. To cover this, the IPCC Fourth How medical education is changing Report (AR4) quotes 20, 100 and 500 year time spans. The warming potential of CH 4 relative to CO 2 is a factor 9 higher with a 20 year time span than with a 500 year time span (see central methodist university tuition 1), due to the short atmospheric lifetime of CH 4 . Table 1. GWP values and lifetimes for CH 4 and N 2 O used in scenarios, where SAR, TAR and AR4 refer to 100 year GWP values (IPCC 1995, IPCC 2001, IPCC 2007).